In The Aftermath Of The Collapse - Part Two: The Core

Part Two:  The Core

     After the Mets collapsed in 2007 Omar Minaya made several changes to the roster, the most notable of which was, of course, acquiring Johan Santana.  The Mets came one win shy of a post-season berth in 2007, and the obvious presumption was that Santana would have increased the Mets’ win total by, at the very least, one win.  So after going 88-74 in ’07, the Mets went 89-73 in ’08, and once again coughed up a division lead late in the season and finished one win shy of the promised land.

     With Willie Randolph already fired mid-season, fans and media types have had to search elsewhere for a scapegoat.  As a result, many have opined that the Mets’ core of offensive talent (Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran) is simply unable to take the team to the next level, and should be broken up via trades.  Let’s take a look at what getting rid of those players would mean for the Mets, one by one.

Jose Reyes:
    The Mets’ shortstop and leadoff hitter just came off a season in which he hit .297 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI, scored 113 runs, and stole 56 bases.  He led the National League in hits (204) and triples (19), and set career highs in both categories, as well as doubles (37) and on-base percentage (.358).  He has the most stolen bases and triples in the major leagues since 2005, and has the fourth most hits and runs scored over that period.  Reyes has missed a grand total of 15 games over the last four seasons, and plays consistent defense at the most important position on the diamond.

    When the Mets are losing, people like to point out that Reyes is overaggressive at the plate at times, occasionally loses focus in the field, and isn’t always at his locker after losses to face the music the media orchestrates.  And when the Mets’ aren’t going well, it stands out more when Reyes pouts and throws his glove down after a throwing error.

    Sure, Jose Reyes has his faults, and is by no means the smartest and most mature player on the field.  But trading Reyes would be absolutely ludicrous for a variety of reasons.  First, if Reyes weren’t on the Mets, fans would learn extremely quickly how much they take for granted being able to see the same name on the top of the lineup card every night.  From when Rickey Henderson left the Mets in May of 2000 until Reyes cemented his role as the regular leadoff hitter at the beginning of 2005, the Mets used Joe McEwing, Jon Nunnally, Jay Bell, Jason Tyner, Jay Payton, Benny Agbayani, Melvin Mora, Lenny Harris, Mike Bordick, Darryl Hamilton, Timo Perez, Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Desi Relaford, Darren Bragg, Matt Lawton, Roger Cedeno, Roberto Alomar, Esix Snead, Marcos Scutaro, Jeff Duncan, Matt Watson, Kaz Matsui, Eric Valent, Gerald Williams, Danny Garcia, Jeff Keppinger and Mike Cameron at the top of the order.  That’s 27 different leadoff hitters (other than Reyes) in four and a half seasons.  Since Reyes assumed the role in ’05, he’s spent just 12 games in the lineup but out of the leadoff spot, and the Mets have used only 10 different leadoff hitters aside from Reyes in the last four years.

    Consistency at the top of the order is an important asset to a good offense, and that certainly holds true for the Mets, whose success has been so closely tied to Reyes’ production over the last few years.  In his career, Reyes’ batting average is 85 points higher in wins than in losses, his on-base percentage is 87 points higher and his slugging percentage is 175 points higher in wins.  He has stolen more than twice as many bases, scored well more than twice as many runs, driven in almost three times as many runs, hit almost three times as many home runs, and legged out more than three times as many triples in wins than in losses throughout his career.  And most telling, since Reyes’ major league debut on June 10, 2003, the Mets are an unbelievable 271-132 (.672 winning percentage) when he scores a run, including a 62-20 record in 2008.  On the contrary, over that span the Mets are a measly 196-382 (.339 winning percentage) when Reyes fails to score.

    Still think the Mets would be better off without Jose Reyes?  Who’s going to play shortstop if the Mets deal Reyes?  Just like the leadoff spot in the batting order, the shortstop position is one which is much better off manned by the same consistent player day in and day out.  Rey Ordonez wasn’t much of a hitter but his glove kept him in the Mets’ lineup on a daily basis from 1996 through 2002, save for two thirds of the 2000 season, when he went down with a broken forearm.  In 2000 when the Mets lost Ordonez, they shuffled through three other players before trading for Mike Bordick, and after Ordonez left in 2002, the Mets used players such as Rey Sanchez, Jay Bell, Joe McEwing, Jorge Velandia, Wilson Delgado and (dare I mention the Reyes-to-second experiment) Kaz Matsui at short until Reyes took over for good in 2005.  Since then, the Mets have barely even needed a backup on their roster, and Chris Woodward, Anderson Hernandez, Ruben Gotay and Damion Easley have been the only Mets other than Reyes to touch the dirt on that part of the field.  Do the Mets really need another stretch of light-hitting, average-fielding utility players to fill in until the next big thing comes along?  You won’t know what you’ve got ‘till it’s gone.

David Wright:
    The Mets’ number three hitter just drove in 100 or more runs for the fourth straight year, set career highs in runs (115), home runs (33) and RBI (124), and tied career highs in doubles (42) and walks (94).  He is a perennial .300 hitter, one of the most consistent run-producers in the league, and a Gold Glove-caliber defender.  Sure, he sometimes has difficulties with routine plays at third, and left a ton of RBI on the table with his .243 batting average with runners in scoring position in 2008.  But David Wright is the face of the franchise, and certainly should be a mainstay on the Mets for years to come.  Granted, his lack of clutch hitting was part of the Mets’ collapse in ’08, but dealing the 25-year-old number three hitter is certainly not the answer to the Mets’ problems.

Carlos Beltran:
    The Mets’ centerfielder just came off his third straight season with at least 112 RBI, and will likely win his third straight Gold Glove award.  He led the Mets with 116 runs scored, and belted 27 home runs to go along with 25 stolen bases.  Although he may have appeared soft in the past, he played all but one game in 2008, and played his best baseball down the stretch in August and September.  The one asset Beltran seems to lack is a strong presence in the clubhouse, and many fans and commentators have booked his flight out of New York based on his overall quiet demeanor and influence.

    Now if the Mets were to trade Beltran, who could possibly replace him?  He is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the National League, and probably the most consistent offensive centerfielder in the majors.  In all likelihood, Beltran is the best all-around centerfielder in all of baseball—so what good would it do to trade him?  Granted, he’s not necessarily worth his contract, but how many players really are?  And if they were to trade Beltran, who would replace him?  It’s very important to be strong up the middle, and right now center field is a strength of the Mets—it would not be wise for them to turn it into a weakness.  Just like with Jose Reyes, you won’t know what you’ve got ‘till it’s gone.

 
    In an ideal world, the Mets’ core would not only put up outstanding numbers and remain consistent, but also routinely come through in the clutch and provide the type of romanticized clubhouse chemistry all the fans want to think their team possesses.  But the reality of the situation is that every aspect of any team looks a heck of a lot better when the team is winning, and a heck of a lot worse during the rough stretches.  In 2008 the Mets’ bullpen was absolutely dreadful, and easily cost the team several wins.  The Mets were one game shy of the post-season even with dismal relief pitching, while the core of their offense all played very well.  Trading away pieces of the Mets’ core is not the answer—revamping the bullpen and supplementing the core with hard-nosed winning players is.

*Statistical information, gamelogs and historical lineup data derived from www.Baseball-Reference.com.