Seven Runs: Too Little, Too Early

    Remember July 7, when the Mets nearly blew a 10-1 lead against the Phillies, and barely held on by the skin of their teeth to win 10-9?  Well last night was very similar--but not similar enough, because the main difference was that yesterday the Mets actually pulled off the monumental collapse that they were able to avoid on that July night.  Although the bullpen will probably take the most heat for this loss, every facet of the Mets' play was at fault last night.  The 8-7, 13-inning loss highlighted the Mets' three biggest problems throughout this season.

1)  Starters not going deep enough into games:  Lately this has not been as much of a problem because Jerry Manuel has been pushing his starters farther, and the rotation has simply been pitching well enough to warrant that kind of confidence.  But Pedro Martinez's horrendous five innings last night were unacceptable.  Pedro is a very important part of this team, especially now that John Maine is hurt again.  He tends to give up runs early, and then settle down, but when he loses steam, he loses it very quickly.  After working out of a jam in the first inning last night it seemed as if Pedro had found his groove, but he ran up his pitch count early and by the fifth inning was throwing batting practice.  If Pedro is healthy (and he says he is), he will need to give the Mets more quality innings going forward.  Five-inning starts expose a bullpen as unreliable as the Mets'.

2)  Lack of clutch hitting late in games:  Gary Cohen, Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling mention night after night how the Mets have the best run differential in the first three innings of games (+122), but are the polar opposite in innings 7-9 (-51).  It isn't just the bullpen that causes that discrepancy.  Last night was a case in point.  After scoring seven runs through four innings, the Mets were shut out for the final nine innings.  They only had four hits after the fourth inning (they had 10 hits through four), and hit into three inning-ending double plays after the fourth, including one with the bases loaded.  In the seventh inning or later in close (ahead by one, tied, or with the tying run at least on deck) games, Carlos Delgado has batted .194 this season, while Carlos Beltran has batted just .235.  David Wright has hit just .231 with two outs and RISP, while Beltran has hit just .164 in those situations.  In the final three innings of games, Wright has hit only .232 and Beltran has hit just .217.  All season long the Mets' best hitters have struggled in extra innings.  Jose Reyes' batting average in the 10th inning or later is .235 and Beltran's is .167.  In the ninth inning or later Carlos Delgado's average is just .176.  Far too often this season the Mets' offense has poured it on early and then gone to sleep, while the bullpen allowed the opposition to chip away and get back in the game.

3)  The bullpen, of course:  It feels like beating a dead horse already, but the bullpen has not been nearly reliable enough.  The Luis Ayala experiment at closer backfired in its first attempt, and Duaner Sanchez can't seem to get anybody out anymore.  Pedro Feliciano is only useful against lefties, and Joe Smith is only useful against righties, but they never seem to pitch well on the same day.  Scott Schoenweis is inconsistent at best, and Aaron Heilman is either brilliant or terrible.  Last night Heilman gave the Mets three scoreless, albeit difficult, innings, but who knows what to expect his next time out?  In my August 12 blog, I statistically broke down Heilman's appearances to that point.  He actually hasn't allowed a run since then, and has overall looked best when he pitches on back-to-back days.  Jerry Manuel will need to find the right mix with the pitchers he has now, but to this point he hasn't found the right pattern.

     The Mets are once again in second place looking up at Philadelphia, but the good news is Johan Santana pitches tonight.  He'll face Kyle Kendrick, who actually began to warm up during the late innings last night, so it will be interesting to see if he is at all affected by that.

Around The League:  IN OR OUT?

    There are currently 16 teams within 10 games of a playoff spot, but some of those teams' chances of actually finishing in one of the eight available spots are more realistic than others.  The following are my thoughts on which teams will remain in the race, and which teams will find their way out of it.

American League:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (80-51), 1st place in AL West:  IN  With a commanding 16-game lead in the AL West, the question is not whether the Angels will win the division, but rather how soon they will clinch.

Tampa Bay Rays (79-51), 1st place in AL East:  IN  People have been waiting all season long for the Rays to come back to earth and fall out of the race, but they've proven that they're here to stay.  They lead the AL East by 3.5 games, and have played well even through key injuries to Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria and Troy Percival.  Whether or not the Red Sox overtake them will depend on how the young Tampa rotation responds to reaching career-high innings totals.

Boston Red Sox (76-55), 2nd place in AL East, 1st place in AL Wild Card:  IN  The returning champions were picked as the AL-favorites before the season, and have disappointed to some extent.  Injuries to David Ortiz and Mike Lowell have crippled the once-potent offense at times, and Manny Ramirez became a distraction before his departure.  If the Rays falter and Boston's rotation regains consistency once Josh Beckett returns, the Red Sox may have a shot at winning the division, but either way they should be in a dog fight for the Wild Card down the stretch.

Chicago White Sox (76-56), 1st place in AL Central:  IN  Despite some lackluster veteran names who don't exactly compose a dominant team on paper, the White Sox have been toward the top of the division for pretty much the entire season.  Solid starting pitching from two unexpected sources in John Danks and Gavin Floyd have carried Chicago this far, and Carlos Quentin's breakout year has sparked the offense.  If Chicago's rotation continues to roll, and the home runs keep flowing (Chicago leads the majors in homers), they should outlast the less experienced Twins and win the division.

Minnesota Twins (74-58), 2nd place in AL Central, 2nd place in AL Wild Card:  IN  Isn't it amazing that after trading away Johan Santana the Twins have a better record than the Mets?  Not to mention, they lost Torii Hunter to free agency and missed Francisco Liriano for more than half the season.  Like the Rays, and to some extent the White Sox, the Twins have ridden their young starting pitching to an improbable run at a playoff spot.  Similar to the Angels, the Twins play a smart, mistake-free brand of baseball, and their .312 team batting average with runners in scoring position has helped, too.  They probably don't have the experience and durability on the pitching staff to keep up with the White Sox for the long haul, but they could make a run at the Wild Card (they're only 2.5 games back) and will surely be in the race until the end.

New York Yankees (70-61), 3rd place in AL East, 3rd place in AL Wild Card:  OUT  Now I'm not one of those people who has wrongfully predicted the Yankees to miss the playoffs each of the last five years--I've always felt that they have a knack for coming through when they need to most.  But even at the beginning of this season I didn't think the Yankees had the team to make the playoffs, and I'll stick by that now.  It just so happens I thought their pitching would have been the weak link, but it has been the offense this season.  In roughly a third of their games the Bronx Bombers have failed to score more than two runs.  They are 9.5 games behind the Rays, which is too big a deficit for the divisional race, and six games behind Boston for the Wild Card.  Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte are showing signs of slowing down, and the back end of the rotation is not solid enough for the Yankees to make a big enough run, even if the offense heats up.  This will likely be the end of a 13-year playoff run in the Bronx.

Toronto Blue Jays (68-63), 4th place in AL East, 4th place in AL Wild Card:  OUT  A dreadful offensive season has the Blue Jays in a rut despite a pair of 16-game winners (Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett) and the best bullpen ERA in the majors (2.92).  They sit eight games behind Boston for the Wild Card, with five teams in front of them, and that's too big a deficit for a stagnating team to overcome.

National League

Chicago Cubs (82-50), 1st place in NL Central:  IN  The Cubs currently have the best record in the majors, and the most balanced team in the NL, if not all of baseball.  If Rich Harden stays healthy, the Brewers shouldn't be too big a threat to overtake the division lead.

Milwaukee Brewers (77-55), 2nd place in NL Central, 1st place in NL Wild Card:  IN  Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia provide the best 1-2 punch in the majors, and any number of players can contribute on offense.  The bullpen is a major problem, but the starters have been going very deep (see:  Sabathia's five complete games, and Sheets' four), so as long as Sheets stays healthy they should maintain their four-game lead for the Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies (73-59), 1st place in NL East:  IN  Although neither the Phillies nor the Mets may be as good as the Cubs or Brewers, the NL East race will go down to the wire, and the loser will go home.  Brett Myers has turned it on lately, and the Phillies will depend on Joe Blanton.  The offense will need to gain more consistency as well.

New York Mets (73-60), 2nd place in NL East, 2nd place in NL Wild Card:  IN  The solid starting rotation will need to keep going deep into games to hide the inconsistent bullpen.  Although the Wild Card may become out of reach the Mets will be in the fight for the division for the duration.

St. Louis Cardinals (73-60), 3rd place in NL Central, 3rd place in NL Wild Card:  OUT  Aside from Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick (who?), the Cardinals have been winning games with smoke and mirrors this season.  But with Chris Carpenter back on the DL and the far superior Cubs and Brewers in front, St. Louis doesn't have a realistic shot at surging to the playoffs.  Tony LaRussa could win Manager of the Year, but the team isn't quite playoff-caliber.

Arizona Diamondbacks (68-64), 1st place in NL West:  IN  The NL's best team a year ago, the Diamondbacks lead baseball's weakest division despite sub-par play.  The poor competition plus the starting rotation headed by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, and a resurgent Randy Johnson, will keep Arizona in the race throughout, but if they don't win the division they have no shot.

Florida Marlins (67-65), 3rd place in NL East, 4th place in NL Wild Card:  OUT  Lack of experience and depth will do the Marlins in, although they made a good run to get to this point.  They hit lots of home runs so they're always dangerous but they strike out a lot, and have holes in the starting rotation.

Los Angeles Dodgers (65-67), 2nd place in NL West:  IN  Their recent five-game skid could have been worse, if Arizona hadn't also lost three straight.  That's how this divisional race will be decided.  Manny Ramirez has helped the offense, but the pitching staff has been inconsistent.  Joe Torre will need to maintain a tight ship to have his team go on a run.

Colorado Rockies (63-71), 3rd place in NL West:  IN  Despite being eight games under .500, the Rockies are only six games behind the division-leading Diamondbacks.  That the Rockies are still in the playoff race is not only a testament to how weak the division is, but also a reflection of what Colorado did last year.  On this day last year, the Rockies were 6.5 games out, with a record 10 games better than it is now.  With 15 games to play, the Rockies were still 6.5 games behind, but rallied to win 14 of those games and beat the Padres in a one-game playoff for the Wild Card.  The Wild Card is certainly out of reach this year, but if Colorado gets hot (they have won eight of their last 10), they could challenge the less-than-spectacular Diamondbacks and Dodgers for the division.

*Statistical Information derived from www.baseball-reference.com.

**Game logs derived from www.mlb.com Gameday.