Heilman Heads Up Another Bullpen Meltdown

    Since when is a four-run, seventh inning lead against a team 17.5 games out of first place not safe?  Since the Mets' bullpen hit rock bottom.

    The Mets' plan for Monday afternoon's makeup game against the Pirates was to get on top early and send Pittsburgh packing quickly.  When David Wright knocked a three-run home run to right center in the first, and Pedro Martinez allowed only one run through six innings, the game seemed to be following how it was scripted.  But then on came the New York bullpen.

    Joe Smith started the seventh inning with a 5-1 lead, and promptly walked the lead-off batter, and allowed him to score on a double by pinch hitter Freddy Sanchez.  5-2, Mets.  Enter Pedro Feliciano.  After Nate McLouth, the Pirates' best hitter, gave the Mets a gift of an out on a sacrifice bunt, Feliciano walked Luis Rivas on four pitches and gave up an RBI double to Doug Mientkiewicz.  Ryan Doumit followed with a sacrifice fly to chase Feliciano and pull Pittsburgh to within one run.  Duaner Sanchez came on to retire Andy LaRoche to end the seventh, and tossed a hitless eighth to keep the 5-4 lead in tact.  Enter Aaron Heilman.  After striking out McLouth, Heilman looked like he might cruise to his third straight save.  But he then fell behind 3-0 on Rivas, who singled to left, and walked Mientkiewicz to put the go-ahead run on base.  Doumit smacked a line drive off the right field wall for the game-tying RBI single, and Heilman hit LaRoche to load the bases.  5-5.  Enter Scott Schoenweis.  Damion Easley threw home on a hard smash by Brandon Moss to nail Mientkiewicz at the plate, and it looked like Schoenweis might preserve the tie.  But Steve Pearce had a different idea.  With the merry-go-round in motion on a full count, Pearce lined a single into left center to score two runs.  7-5, Pirates.  Exit Mets.

    Although Monday's bullpen disaster was truly a team effort, it was capitalized by Aaron Heilman's meltdown.  What is most frustrating about Heilman's performance is that there seems to be no rhyme or reason to his success or failure.  His ERA on the season is now 5.74, but his outings are all-or-nothing; he either strikes out the side or gives up a game-winning bomb.  The month of August has been a microcosm of Heilman's entire season.  He was charged with back-to-back losses in Houston on August 1 and 2, giving up five runs in 1.1 innings over those two games, and then was tagged with three runs in a third of an inning against San Diego on August 5.  But then he rebounded with a perfect two thirds of an inning and a win on Thursday, and back-to-back saves against the Marlins on Friday and Saturday, allowing just one baserunner in those three outings.  But then today, he only retired one batter en route to giving up three runs, for the blown save and loss.

    So what exactly is Heilman's problem?  It can't be that he's unable to pitch the ninth inning--until today that was his best inning ERA-wise, although now his stats in the ninth are just as bad as any other inning.  In actuality, Heilman's worst inning by ERA is the eighth, in which he posts a 7.52 mark.  But oddly enough, he's pitched in the eighth inning in 25 of his 63 appearances, more than in any other inning.  One red flag that pops out of Heilman's statistics is that he has an ERA of 16.20 when he enters the game in the middle of an inning with runners on base, and he has allowed eight of 25 (32%) inherited runners to score.

    Some may question whether Heilman is overworked.  Sure, he's pitched a lot, as has the rest of the Mets' bullpen, but Heilman's stats actually get progressively worse with more rest.  When Heilman appears in consecutive games, his ERA is 2.80 in those following other outings.  However, when he has one day of rest between appearances his ERA jumps to 6.48, and when he is idle for two days or more it balloons to 8.59.  From those drastic numbers it seems that Heilman actually thrives on being worked hard.  This bizzare statistical split raises the question of why an off-day negatively affects Heilman's ability to perform well.  Perhaps he is not using his off-days to his benefit:  maybe a day off takes Heilman's head out of the game, or maybe he needs to change his rest-day throwing regimen.  Whatever the problem is, it seems that Heilman, with pitching coach Dan Warthen's help, can remedy it, considering how well he has pitched with no rest.  He'd better do it soon, too, because more bullpen collapses like Monday's might cripple the Mets' chances at making the playoffs.

Around The League

    The Diamondbacks made a splash on Monday, acquiring Adam Dunn from the Reds for three minor leaguers.  Dunn currently leads the majors with 32 home runs, but he is only batting .233 and has already struck out 120 times.  His bat will definitely bolster Arizona's scrappy offense and add some much-needed power to the middle of the batting order, and this move looks like Arizona's counter to the Dodgers' acquisition of Manny Ramirez.

    It's been interesting to see how some players have performed since being traded over the last couple of weeks; most of the hitters have been outstanding and most of the pitchers have been awful.  Xavier Nady has a .365 batting average, five home runs and 13 RBI in 15 games since joining the Yankees.  Jason Bay is hitting .333 with eight RBI and 11 runs scored in nine games with the Red Sox, and Manny has been tearing it up in Los Angeles, hitting .475 with four homers and 13 RBI in 10 games in Dodger blue.  On the other hand, Damaso Marte is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA for the Yankees, and Kyle Farnsworth has an 8.31 ERA and has given up three homers in 4.1 innings for the Tigers.  Livan Hernandez gave up nine runs in 2.2 innings for Colorado on Sunday, after the Rockies acquired him from the Twins in a waiver deal.

    However, the three highest profile starting pitchers who were moved before the trade deadline have lived up to expectations, and then some.  C.C. Sabathia is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA for the Brewers, with four complete games and two shutouts.  Rich Harden only has one win since joining the Cubs, but he has posted a 2.10 ERA and has fanned 47 batters in only 30 innings.  Even Joe Blanton has helped his new team, with a 3.27 ERA in four starts, three of which have resulted in wins for the Phillies.

Theory of the Week:  The Fluctuation of Premier Set-Up Men

    Many Yankee fans will remember how Paul Quantrill was so dominant as a set-up man in 2003 with the Dodgers, but then became nothing more than a liability as a Yankee in 2004.  They watched with wonder as his 1.75 ERA and 0.98 WHIP skyrocketed to 4.72 and 1.51, respectively.  But even more surprising than Quantrill's schizophrenia between two seasons, is just how commonplace that kind of performance discrepency is among middle relievers.  I've long been a believer that most middle relievers are merely pitchers who aren't good enough to be starters or closers.  Far too often elite set-up men one year fade into mop-up role oblivion the next.  Here's a list of the top five set-up men (in terms of holds) over the last three years, and what they've done the following season.  Also listed are this season's top five, and where they were last year.

Pitcher            2005 Holds  2005 ERA  2005 WHIP  2006 Holds  2006 ERA  2006 WHIP

Tom Gordon            33            2.57          1.09         0 (34 Saves)     3.34          1.26

Scott Eyre                32            2.63          1.08               18             3.38          1.48

Ryan Madson           32            4.14          1.25                6              5.69          1.68

Scot Shields             32           2.75           1.12               31             2.87          1.07

Julian Tavarez          32           3.13           1.32                2              4.47          1.56

Pitcher                2006 Holds  2006 ERA  2006 WHIP  2007 Holds  2007 ERA  2007 WHIP

Scott Linebrink           36            3.57           1.22              21              3.55          1.50

Scot Shields               31            2.87           1.07              31              3.86          1.23

Joel Zumaya              30            1.94           1.18              7                4.28          1.19

Aaron Heilman           26            3.62           1.16              22              3.03          1.07

Scott Proctor              26            3.52           1.19              18              3.65          1.41

Juan Rincon               26            2.91           1.35               14              5.13          1.56

Pitcher                2007 Holds  2007 ERA  2007 WHIP  2008 Holds  2008 ERA  2008 WHIP

Brandon Lyon             35             2.68            1.24        0 (24 Saves)     4.14          1.38

Heath Bell                 34             2.02             0.96              18             3.25          1.16

Jon Rauch                 33             3.61            1.10         4 (17 Saves)     2.86          0.95

Derrick Turnbow        33            4.63            1.32                0             15.63         3.95

Jonathan Broxton       32            2.85            1.15         13 (8 Saves)     3.65          1.22

Rafael Betancourt       31            1.47            0.76                5              6.27          1.52

Pitcher                2008 Holds  2008 ERA  2008 WHIP  2007 Holds  2007 ERA  2007 WHIP

Kyle McClellan            27             2.69           1.24              N/A             N/A            N/A

Dan Wheeler              25            2.72            1.01              18              5.30          1.30

Eddie Guardado          23            3.15            0.99               1               7.24          1.46

Carlos Marmol            22            2.95            0.98         17 (6 Saves)     1.43           1.10

Scot Shields               22            2.80            1.27              31              3.86           1.23

    These breakdowns show not only how elite set-up men can deteriorate, but also how dominant middle relievers can emerge from out of nowhere.  The only reliever whose name appears multiple times on these lists is Scot Shields, who has been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in the majors for the last five years.  Other than Shields, the only pitchers on these lists to remain a premier reliever are Aaron Heilman, Scott Linebrink, Jonathan Broxton, Tom Gordon, Brandon Lyon and Jon Rauch.  Heilman is having a miserable season in 2008, Linebrink is currently on the DL, Broxton and Lyon have since moved into the closer role for their respective teams, and Gordon saw some success as a closer in 2006, but has struggled the last two years back in middle relief.

*Statistical information derived from www.baseball-reference.com and www.mlb.com.

**Gamelogs derived from www.mlb.com Gameday.