Theory of the Week: Relief Spending
Every winter the free agent frenzy escalates as contracts rise to astronomical amounts and lengths. Some MLB executives balk at the dearth of talent and exhorbitant contracts, while others jump at the opportunity to sign what they think are the missing pieces, for whatever the market demands. Swarming the headlines this past off-season were some of the questionable contracts signed by relief pitchers.
While at first it may not seem like some of the signings were worthwhile (both in dollars and years), there may be a method to the GMs' madness. Last season, teams that made the playoffs averaged a bullpen ERA of 3.94, compared with 4.30 for teams that fell short of the postseason. Non-playoff teams also used their less reliable bullpens an average of 30 innings more than playoff teams. That may not seem like much of a difference, but the combination of those two discrepencies equates to more than a run per game. Consider that the extra run was usually being scored late in the game, and you may just have the grounds for a hefty investment.
The Yankees made the playoffs last year and had a bullpen ERA of 4.37. In the offseason they re-signed closer Mariano Rivera to a three-year, $45 million contract, a record for relievers. This year Rivera has 26 saves and a 1.49 ERA, and hasn't blown a save all season. Last year the Yankees' bullpen ERA was 4.37, but Rivera has helped New York's pen to a 3.64 mark this season. The Yankees are right in the playoff mix as usual, sitting 5.5 games out of first and just 2.5 games behind Boston in the Wild Card race.
Similarly, the Phillies signed left-handed reliever J.C. Romero to a three-year, $12 million contract in the offseason after posting a 4.50 bullpen ERA en route to a division title in 2007. In 2008 Romero boasts a 2.25 ERA and Philadelphia has the second best bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.11. The Phillies lead the NL East by 2.5 games over the Florida Marlins.
The following chart shows some of the most lucrative contracts given to relief pitchers this past offseason by teams that missed the playoffs in 2007, and how those pitchers have helped their respective teams this year. As you can see, the impact is hit-or-miss.
RP Contract '08 ERA Team '07 Bullpen ERA '08 Bullpen ERA Record
Francisco Cordero 4 Yrs/$46 mil 3.35 CIN 5.13 3.49 52-61
Scott Linebrink 4 Yrs/$19 mil 2.31 CHW 5.49 3.50 61-49
Octavio Dotel 2 Yrs/$11 mil 3.17 CHW 5.49 3.50 61-49
Troy Percival 2 Yrs/$8 mil 3.86 TB 6.16 3.43 66-45
David Riske 3 Yrs/$13 mil 4.46 MIL 4.24 4.16 62-51
Eric Gagne 1 Yr/$10 mil 6.59 MIL 4.24 4.16 62-51
Todd Jones 1 Yr/$7 mil 5.05 DET 4.40 4.31 55-56
Keith Foulke 1 Yr/$7 mil 3.81 OAK 4.33 3.27 53-58
Ron Mahay 2 Yrs/$8 mil 2.20 KC 3.89 4.15 53-60
Yasuhiko Yabuta 2 Yrs/$6 mil 5.46 KC 3.89 4.15 53-60
Eddie Guardado 1 Yr/$2 mil 3.16 TEX 3.71 4.98 59-54
*All statistical information derived from www.baseball-reference.com.
**All contractual information is rounded to the nearest $million and derived from ESPN.com.
Keywords: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, David Riske, Detroit Tigers, Eddie Guardado, Eric Gagne, Florida Marlins, Francisco Cordero, J.C. Romero, Kansas City Royals, Keith Foulke, Mariano Rivera, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Octavio Dotel, Philadelphia Phillies, Ron Mahay, Scott Linebrink, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Todd Jones, Troy Percival, Yasuhiko Yabuta
