Trade Market: Will The Mets Be Involved?

    The trade deadline is approaching and the Mets still have some needs to fill.  It's still unknown whether Ryan Church will be able to come back and play everyday, so a corner outfielder is certainly a priority.  On Monday Jerry Manuel named Fernando Tatis the everyday left fielder, but his red-hot month may not, and probably will not, last.  Even if Tatis remains decent as a starter, the uncertainty surrounding Church's health calls for a stronger bench.  Endy Chavez is an excellent defensive replacement outfielder, but when he plays everyday he eventually gets exposed offensively, so he is really more suited to a role as a fourth outfielder.  Casey Blake would have been a good fit because he can play both corner outfield positions as well as first base, but he has already been traded to the Dodgers.

    The remaining trade market for outfielders is tricky, because the value of certain players has seemed a little off kilter thus far.  For example, Pittsburgh at first was reported to be seeking a king's ransom in return for Xavier Nady, but then ultimately gave him up, along with Damaso Marte, for very little in return.  Before the Mets consider different trade scenarios, they need to establish a plan for what they are willing to give up, and what they would need to receive in return for those players.

    It has been reported that the Mets are unwilling to part with their top pitching prospect, Jon Niese, or or their prized outfield prospect, Fernando Martinez.  It is silly to announce these types of restrictions because there are always circumstances in which it makes sense to trade a top prospect.  How often do teams have realistic opportunities to go deep in the playoffs?  Not very.  Since 2000, 12 different teams have played in the World Series, and no team has repeated as World Champion in back-to-back years.  Only the Red Sox have won multiple titles in the last eight years, and they had a season in which they missed the playoffs in between.  The point is, if a team has a legitimate chance at winning a World Series, trading a prospect might be worthwhile.  Although it is prudent to try not to bankrupt the farm system for the future, teams should try to win one championship before they worry about creating dynasties.

    With that said, Martinez and Niese should still only be traded for a bona-fide difference-maker, who clearly puts the team over the edge and gives the Mets a much better chance to win the World Series this year.   Raul Ibanez, Brian Giles, and Randy Winn do not qualify as that type of player.  Matt Holliday and Mark Teixeira do, but Holliday appears to be off the market and Teixeira has already been dealt to the Angels.

    Adam Dunn is an interesting option because of his outstanding power and high walk totals, but he hits for a low average, does not produce well in the clutch, and strikes out far too often.  On top of that, I don't know whether J.P. Ricciardi was just blowing smoke when he said Dunn lacks a passion for baseball, but if there is even a question as to whether he is truly devoted to winning, it is not worth it to deal a top prospect to bring him into a town with this much pressure to win.

    Manny Ramirez would certainly be worth a top prospect or two, but Boston is looking for major league talent in return.  There have been rumors of a Manny Ramirez and Jacoby Ellsbury for Carlos Beltran trade.  Beltran is not worth the money the Mets are paying him, he has not lived up to the expectations he created for himself in the 2005 playoffs, and he is very streaky offensively.  However, his millions of critics in the New York metropolitan area are usually irrational.  Beltran is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, and offensively, despite his cold streaks, he is still in the top three at his position.  Although he has struggled to a .145 batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs this year, he actually has been a very solid clutch performer in his career, hitting .306 with RISP.  With all that said, if that particular deal presents itself Omar Minaya would have to pull the trigger.  Ellsbury is a very good outfielder with a pretty good offensive upside, and Ramirez's bat is uncomparable.  However, drawbacks of Manny Ramirez include the possibility that he is just a rental player for the remainder of this season, and the inevitable headaches that come with Manny "being Manny."

    Jason Bay is the remaining outfielder on the trade block for whom it might be worth giving up a top prospect.  Bay has the type of power the Mets could use from a corner outfielder, and his career .281 batting average is respectable.  His career average with RISP is about the same, but with two outs it drops to .267.  So he is not a particularly clutch hitter, and this season he has been even less so, hitting just .202 with RISP and .226 with RISP and two outs.  Does Jason Bay improve the Mets this season?  Probably.  But does he put the team over the hump and make them a good deal more of a World Series contender?  Probably not.  Because of that, it is not worth trading Fernando Martinez or Jon Niese for Bay.

    That leaves a somewhat shorter list of outfielders for whom the Mets could trade without giving up a top prospect.  Jose Guillen said he wants out of Kansas City, but his recurring attitude problems should keep him off the Mets' radar screen.  Bay, Giles and Ibanez would all be good targets for the right price.  Earlier reports indicated that Pittsburgh was looking for top prospects in return for any of their coveted players, but after the Yankees fleeced them, you have to believe anything can happen.  Of those three, Bay probably fits the Mets best, so if he can be had without giving up Martinez, Niese or a significant major league player, Minaya should go for it.  Giles is the next most attractive option, followed by Ibanez.  Randy Winn is a conceivable back-up plan, but he would not even necessarily start for the Mets should they acquire him.

    Outside of mid-level prospects, Argenis Reyes and Nick Evans might be enticing trade bait for Bay, Giles or Ibanez.  Reyes has played very well since being called up, and both the Pirates and Padres have openings at second base.  Evans is a fourth or fifth outfielder at this point in his career, but he has decent speed and a lively enough bat that a team might take a chance on him.

    The other addition the Mets need is another bullpen arm.  The Rockies no longer appear to be shopping their closer, Brian Fuentes, and Damaso Marte has already been moved.  Neither of those players would have been worth giving up Martinez or Niese anyway, but now there are definitely no relievers on the block that would warrant a top prospect in a trade.  Will Ohman of Atlanta is available but he is just a lefthanded specialist, and the Mets already have Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoenweis.  John Grabow of the Pirates appears available, but he is not much of an upgrade over anything the Mets have.  The Padres' Heath Bell, Cla Meredith or Mike Adams are all decent relievers who could be paired with Giles in a possible deal, but the Mets might have to give up too much to get both players.  Likewise, Seattle's Sean Green and Arthur Rhodes would be upgrades over Carlos Muniz, but acquiring both Ibanez and a reliever might cost the Mets a top prospect.  The Mets might be able to get Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt on the cheap.  He had a superb season last year, but has struggled this year, so maybe a change of scenery could benefit him.  The other possibility is the Royals' lefty Ron Mahay, but they just signed him to a lucrative contract this offseason so they might ask for a lot in return.

    If Minaya does not make a move by Thursday's deadline something will most likely be in the works by the August 15 waiver deadline.  In all likelihood the Mets will not make a huge splash, but will upgrade mildly.