Mets Fried By Fish, Maine Leaves Early

    Monday night in Miami was an all-around bad experience for the Mets.  John Maine cruised into the fifth inning with a 2-0 lead, and looked just fine to the naked eye.  But after Maine missed with a 1-0 fastball to John Baker, Jerry Manuel, Dan Warthen and Ray Ramirez, the trainer, jogged out to the mound to consult with Maine.  He appeared to say he was fine, and stayed in the game for the time being.  But after his next pitch to Baker left the yard for a solo home run, and his 1-2 pitch to Marlins pitcher Ricky Nolasco chased Endy Chavez to the warning track to make the catch, Manuel and Warthen decided they had seen enough, and pulled Maine in favor of Carlos Muniz.  Maine is listed as day-to-day with shoulder stiffness, and Warthen said he was most concerned that Maine might develop further injuries if he tried to compensate in his delivery to protect his shoulder.  In all likelihood Maine will miss a start in order to rest his shoulder, and hopefully pitch again next week.  After the game Manuel was adamant that Maine will not pitch through any pain.

    It is always difficult to win a game when the bullpen needs to go 4.2 innings, and the lack of run support did not help either.  Overall this was a sloppy game on both sides.  In the sixth, Carlos Muniz threw a wild pitch that Brian Schneider should have handled.  It allowed Mike Jacobs to advance into scoring position with two outs, and he came around to score the tying run on Cody Ross' single.  Florida's trademark hideous defense was marked by two defensive lapses in the eighth, the first of which allowed David Wright to scamper from first to third on a Delgado grounder.  He then score the go-ahead run on Fernando Tatis' grounder to short, which may have been an inning-ending double play had Hanley Ramirez not thrown errantly to first.  In the bottom of the eighth, after the Marlins scored two to go ahead 4-3, Scott Schoenweis threw a wild pitch with the bases loaded, scoring one, and then to add insult to injury, gave up a two-run double on the next pitch to put the game out of reach.

    Again, it is usually a tall order to ask a bullpen to hold a one-run lead for more than four innings, but this was still a discouraging loss considering how fresh most of the relievers were after Santana's complete game on Sunday.  Bringing Muniz in was a questionable move in itself, with how bad he has been all year.  But he actually pitched effectively for 1.1 innings, until Mike Jacobs stepped up to the plate with two outs and nobody on.  Then came Manuel's first mistake of the game.  Why pitch around Jacobs instead of bringing in Pedro Feliciano?  If Muniz gets you four outs without blowing the game, you take your money and run.  But instead, Manuel had Muniz put the tying run on base and pitch to Cody Ross, who tied the game at 2-2 with his RBI single.  Then, Manuel brought in Feliciano to strike out the Baker.  If bringing in Feliciano to face just one batter was an option anyway, then Manuel should have brought him in to face Jacobs.  I might even have used Schoenweis in that situation, and saved Feliciano for a full inning later in the game, instead of Schoenweis, who ultimately pitched poorly anyway.

    Manuel made another questionable move in the top of the seventh when he pinch-hit Nick Evans for Schneider.  If he then would have to bring a catcher in anyway, it would have made more sense to use Ramon Castro, who is a much better hitter than Evans, as the pinch hitter.  It ended up working out somewhat, as Evans walked.  Argenis Reyes pinch-hit for Feliciano and bunted Evans to second, where he was stranded.  Presumably Manuel was worried that if Castro singled or walked, then there is no speed on the bases, but I would still take my chances with Castro's ability to hit the ball out of the park.

    The Mets are now a half game up on the Phillies, who were idle on Monday, and one game ahead of the Marlins in the NL East.  Oliver Perez, coming off a great start against the Phillies, goes for the Mets tonight against Scott Olsen.  New York will need another solid start from Perez, and preferrably another deep outing in light of the uncertainty surrounding Maine and Pedro Martinez in the starting rotation.  Three runs also will not cut it; the offense needs to step it up.  Fernando Tatis can't do it all by himself.

Check back later today for my take on the Mets' trade options. 

Around The League

    Kevin Slowey pitched a complete game shutout against the White Sox on Monday to move the Twins within 1.5 games of Chicago for first place in the AL Central.  Minnesota has been winning on the strength of their pitching, with the emergence of starters like Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker.  Their outfield defense, led by Carlos Gomez and Denard Span, is also outstanding.  Gomez crashed into the centerfield fence in Cleveland on Friday and hurt his back making an unbelievable catch.  He was carted off the field and taken to a local hospital, but his back is better and he is day-to-day.

    The AL East race has also tightened up as the Yankees took two of three from Boston at Fenway over the weekend.  Tampa Bay still sits atop the division, but the Red Sox are only a game behind, and the Yankees are three games back and within striking distance.  Meanwhile, Toronto's GM, J.P. Ricciardi, said that A.J. Burnett will not be traded because the team is close to climbing back into contention.  After winning the first game of a three-game series over the Rays, the Blue Jays are now 7.5 games out of first place.

    The Cubs took the first game of a big three-game series against the Brewers in Milwaukee, to stay on top of the NL East, now by two games.  C.C. Sabathia failed to pick up a victory for the first time since he was traded to the Brewers.  Carlos Zambrano and Ben Sheets will battle it out tonight.

Check back later today for a full assessment of the trade market before Thursday's deadline. 

Theory of the Week:  Closers in Non-Save Situations

    As evidenced by the Mets' bullpen's performance in the ninth inning last Tuesday, closers do not have an easy job, and only some pitchers have the intangible abilities to close games.  Four Mets pitchers combined to allow six runs on five hits and two walks in the ninth inning when closer Billy Wagner was unavailable to pitch.  Granted, Wagner has blown six saves this season, and sometimes he makes even his successful saves a bit too interesting.  But he has never had the type of meltdown the rest of the Mets relief corps had last Tuesday, and he has saved 26 games this season.

    Some pitchers crumble under the pressure of pitching with a small lead in the ninth inning, while others thrive on it.  This distinction is obvious, but still varies among those whose duty it is to nail down those close games and shut the door on a potential comeback.  As the following statistics show, some closers are better suited for higher pressure situations, while others would potentially be better off in a different role.

    Twenty-six of the 30 major league teams have a distinctive closer who has gotten nearly all of the available save opportunities this year.  (The Braves, Indians, Mariners and Cardinals have not had an everyday closer this season for varying reasons, from poor performance to injuries.)  Of the 26 sure-fire closers, exactly half have better ERAs this year in save situations than in non-save situations.  Overall, the 26 closers have a collective ERA of 2.96 in save situations compared with a 3.10 mark in non-save situations, while allowing a batting average against (BAA) that is 20 points higher in non-save situations than in save situations (.207 to .187).

    Some of the 13 pitchers who perform better in save situations have drastic splits in performance.  Baltimore's George Sherrill, who is tied for second in the majors with 30 saves, has a 3.12 ERA in save situations, but has allowed six earned runs in just nine non-save innings, for an ERA of 6.00.  Coincidentally (or perhaps not), as his name has come up frequently over the last week in possible trade scenarios several scouts and team executives have noted that he thrives on guts and guile rather than great stuff.  C.J. Wilson, who has saved 23 games in 26 chances for the Rangers, has a 4.01 ERA in save situations.  Think that ERA is less than impressive for a closer?  Well, if he performed as badly in save chances as his 6.38 ERA in 18.1 non-save innings, he probably wouldn't even be in the major leagues.  San Francisco's closer, Brian Wilson, leads the NL with 28 saves in 30 chances, and has an impressive 2.67 ERA in save situations.  However, in non-save situations his ERA balloons to a whopping 9.82 over 11 innings pitched.

    Even Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge, the only closers in the majors who have yet to blow a save, have pitched far worse in non-save situations than in save chances this season.  Combined they have 50 saves and have only allowed four earned runs in 51.1 innings (0.70 ERA) in save chances this year, compared to 13 earned runs in only 39 non-save innings (3.00 ERA).  Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes, two pitchers who have spent significant time both in set-up and closer roles over the last few seasons, have similar splits in performance.  When Rauch was closing for the Nationals, he had a 1.61 ERA in save situations and a 4.15 ERA in non-save situations.  Fuentes, who assumed the closer role in late April and has since saved 17 games in 19 chances for Colorado, has a 2.45 ERA in save chances and a 4.62 mark in non-save situations since he was named the closer.  The all-time leader in saves, Trevor Hoffman has been having a sub-par season so far, but his numbers are still much more respectable in save situations than otherwise.  He has saved 22 games in 25 chances with a 4.03 ERA in those 25 games, as opposed to a 5.40 ERA in 10 innings of other circumstances.

    On the other side of the coin, 13 pitchers actually perform better in non-save situations.  For some, like B.J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria and Billy Wagner, the numbers are still impressive in save chances and the splits are not pronounced enough to mean anything much.  And for long-time closers like Troy Percival, this year could be an anomaly.  But for some, these splits call into question whether these pitchers are truly fit for the closer role.

    The Marlins' Kevin Gregg, for example, has 22 saves in 28 chances and a 3.12 ERA in those 26 innings, as opposed to just a 1.50 ERA in 24 non-save innings.  Arizona's Brandon Lyon, who has seen success in middle relief earlier in his career, has a 4.88 ERA and five blown saves in 26 chances, along side a 2.16 ERA in non-save situations.  Francisco Cordero, who saves a lot of games every year, but routinely blows a high percentage and allows a lot of runs, has a 5.19 ERA and six blown saves in 27 opportunities.  The Reds signed him to an exorbitant contract in the offseason, but maybe they should have signed him as a middle reliever, because he has a microscopic 1.27 ERA in 21.1 non-save innings this year.  Similarly, Jose Valverde, who led the NL in saves and blown saves last year with Arizona, has a 5.40 ERA in his 33 save chances this year with Houston.  He's saved 27 of those games, but has a much better 3.24 ERA in non-save situations.

    What do these splits mean?  Neither Troy Percival, Joakim Soria nor Billy Wagner have allowed an earned run in a non-save situation.  Does that mean they shouldn't be closers?  Probably not.  But this split in performance is an interesting way to look at the effectiveness of closers.  Closers should not be (and usually are not) rated simply by how many saves they have.  Blown saves and save percentage also need to be scrutinized, as do situations in which closers allow two runs in the ninth with a three-run lead and still get credit for the save.  Splitting closers' stats acording to when they are in the game to truly do their job is just another way to measure a closer's value.

    This is especially useful considering how much money closers make these days.  Francisco Cordero just signed a four-year, $46 million contract, which according to these splits, he is not worth.  All other factors, such as postseason performance, career stats and team history, not considered, these splits show that Mariano Rivera is much more deserving of his three-year, $45 million contract.  The bottom line is that if a pitcher is signed to be a closer, he ultimately needs to perform well in save situations.

*Statistical information derived from www.baseballreference.com, www.mlb.com and sports.yahoo.com.

**Gamelogs derived from www.baseballreference.com and mlb.com's gameday.