Pelfrey and the Mets Finally Make It Easy

    Well, my biggest gripe yesterday was that the Mets never win or lose a game that isn't in question until the final out.  I guess they realized I'm almost out of Pepto and gave me the break I was looking for.  Carlos Beltran belted a three-run home run off Giants ace Tim Lincecum in the first inning and Carlos Delagado and Fernando Tatis each homered later in the game to lead the Mets to their fourth straight win.

    But the real story was the dominant performance from Mike Pelfrey (7 innings, 3 hits, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts).  Pelfrey has won his last five starts and is unbeaten since May 26.  He has a 2.61 ERA in his last eight starts and the Mets are 7-1 in that span.  What might be most telling is the fact that he has not allowed a home run since May 21, a sign that his hard sinker has developed into a solid out pitch at the major league level.  Sure, it's possible that Pelfrey will go out and lose his next five starts, but this recent stretch is encouraging for Mets fans as he has looked like the pitcher in whom the Mets invested the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft.  On that note, while it may be easy for impatient New York fans to forget, Pelfrey still has relatively little professional experience.  He only made 18 minor league starts in 2006 (including just two for AAA New Orleans) before his cup of coffee with the Mets, and made just 15 more starts in the minors last season along with 15 appearances in the majors.  He is still only 24 years old and it is usually a gradual process to develop a pitching prospect--not everyone can be Doc Gooden.  His recent success has been a pleasure to watch and is hopefully a sign of great things to come.

    On the other side of the ball, the offense has been firing on all cylinders of late, as the Mets have averaged 7.1 runs per game over their last eight contests, winning six.  Jose Reyes, the clear catalyst of the offense, has gotten on base at a .425 clip in July, but the real fuel for the offensive surge has been the performance of role players such as Tatis, Damion Easley, Endy Chavez, Ramon Castro and Brian Schneider.  Naturally David Wright has been solid too, hitting .344 this month with six RBI, and hopefully Beltran's big game last night will break him out of his recent funk.

    However, it's not all good news in Flushing today, as Ryan Church has landed back on the disabled list with post-concussion syndrome.  While it's been delightful riding the unexpected contributions from the likes of Tatis, Easley and Chavez, it's only a matter of time before they all come back to Earth.  And once that happens, the Mets will need a legitimate run producer in one of the corner outfield spots, assuming Church and Moises Alou have trouble staying on the field.

    Considering the dearth of talent at the top of the Mets' minor league system and injuries to blue chip prospect Fernando Martinez, Omar Minaya will probably need to explore the trade market for an outfield bat.  Before we start formulating trades for the Matt Hollidays, Grady Sizemores and Adam Dunns of the world, we have to realize that the lack of promise in the Mets' farm system also cripples their ability to trade for such players.  Here are three options that are more logical:

1)  Brian Giles, RF, San Diego Padres:  The Padres are 19 games under .500 and 9.5 games out of first place in the weakest division in baseball, so they probably wouldn't mind trading the 37-year-old.  Giles no longer has the same power that averaged him 37 home runs a year from 1999-2002, but he still hits for average and walks a ton.  He is batting .301 and has an on-base percentage of .394, and he would fit perfectly into the Mets lineup as the number two hitter.  He was never a spectacular right fielder but he is still average and covers the vast expanse in PetCo. Park decently enough.  It's uncertain what the Padres would want in return for Giles, but possibly a package of Nick Evans and Carlos Muniz could entice them.  Both are young and unproven so despite little upside the Padres might be willing to take a chance now that they are out of the playoff race.  I also wonder how much value Claudio Vargas has at this point.  He is a serviceable spot starter or long reliever who might benefit from pitcher-friendly PetCo. and land a spot in the Padres' rotation.

2)  Raul Ibanez, LF, Seattle Mariners:  This year has been a disaster for Seattle, and they will most likely go into rebuilding mode this off-season.  Amidst all the Erik Bedard trade rumors, the 36-year old left fielder might be the first player to go.  Ibanez has been a legitimate run producer over the last six years, averaging 17 home runs and 95 RBI over that span, and he is a .284 career hitter.  Like Giles, he isn't much of a fielder, but he has proven he can play the outfield well enough in the large confines of Safeco Field.  The main problem with Ibanez is that he is a left handed batter so it would be tricky to bat him next to Delgado in the order since he isn't much of a number two hitter, but a plus is that he can play first base, so he can spell Delgado for an occasional day off.  The Mariners are trying to get younger, so they would probably need a similar combination of Evans and Muniz, or possibly infielder Argenis Reyes in return for Ibanez, but I'm not sure that package would be enticing enough for interim GM Lee Pelekoudas.

3)  Shannon Stewart, LF, Toronto Blue Jays:  Although Stewart is the most lackluster name on this list, he will probably be the easiest for the Mets to get.  The 34-year-old no longer has the speed to steal bases the way he did when he averaged 33 from 1998-2001 but he stole 11 last year and still hits for average and gets on base at a decent rate.  He could fill the number two spot in the Mets batting order and plays above average outfield defense, and could platoon with Chavez in either corner position if Alou or Church are in the lineup.  The Jays are unhappy with their middle infield situation and might be willing to give Argenis Reyes a shot to compete against John McDonald, Aaron Hill and Marcos Scutaro for playing time if they trade David Eckstein as has been rumored.

Of that list, Giles seems to be the best fit, but I'm not sure what New York would have to give up to get him.  I do not want to trade Endy Chavez, and I do not want to cripple the bullpen by trading Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Duaner Sanchez or Pedro Feliciano.  Scott Schoenweis is expendable but probably does not have much value, as is the case with most other Mets players outside their untradeable core, and that will be Omar Minaya's main obstacle in getting an outfield bat before the trading deadline.

Around The League

    Two days after the Brewers landed C.C. Sabathia from the Indians, the Cubs answered back by acquiring Rich Harden in a six-player deal with Oakland.  If Harden can stay healthy, he makes the Cubs' rotation very tough to beat, but unfortunately that has been a very big "if" thus far in the right hander's career.  Harden has been on the DL six times since 2003 and get this:  since Harden came off the DL on May 11 he has made 11 starts, his longest streak of health since he made 12 straight starts between two DL stints in 2005.  He has been superb this season, as has been the case for most of his career when healthy, but only time will tell.

    This trade comes at an interesting time for the Athletics, as they are 49-41 and five games behind the Angels for the division lead and just 3.5 games back in the wild card race.  But Billy Beane has proven time and time again that he is an excellent evaluator of talent, so this trade may turn out to help the A's make a playoff push this season.  Sean Gallagher, the promising left handed pitcher the A's got in return, is only 22 years old and will slide right into Oakland's rotation in the slot vacated by Harden.  Matt Murton is a typical "Moneyball" type of player; he gets on base often and does all the little things right.  Being a right handed hitter, he will probably split time with lefties Jack Cust and Ryan Sweeney in the outfield and get his share of at bats.

    C.C. Sabathia struggled in his first start for Milwaukee, allowing 10 baserunners in six innings, but came away with the victory as the Brewers' potent offense pounded out seven runs.  Sabathia must have been thrilled to finally earn one of those types of wins after the Indians scored two runs or less in nine of his 18 starts.  The Crew's other ace, Ben Sheets, takes the hill tonight against Colorado in search of his 11th win.

    The Philadelphia Phillies have lost six of their last seven series, and after getting shut out by Joel Piniero of St. Louis last night have seen their division lead shrink to just 1.5 games over the Marlins and Mets.  They will look to reverse that trend tonight against Mark Mulder, who is making his first start since September 16, 2007.

Fantasy Tips of the Week

     C.C. Sabathia's value increases with his recent trade to the more offensively talented Brewers.  His strikeout rate will remain one of the best in the league and the wins should come easier.  Rich Harden's value also increases with his trade to a better offensive team.  Oakland scores 4.3 runs per game compared to 5.4 for Chicago, so health is still the only knock on Harden.

Buy low on these 3:

1)  Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies:  His .268 batting average, six home runs, 29 RBI and 18 doubles all put him on pace to fall below his career averages.  He had a strong second half last year and has always fared better after the All-Star break.  See if you can trade for him on the cheap.

2)  B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa Bay Rays:  His .280 batting average may not rise too far, but he should add more to his six home runs, and he's always a good source of stolen bases.  Fifteen of his 24 home runs last year came in the second half.

3)  Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees:  He's had a disappointing first half, but the All-Star game at Yankee Stadium might revitalize him for the second half.  The Yankee offense has not performed up to expectations, but with everyone healthy they could become more explosive as a unit.  Even with the slow start Jeter has a shot at scoring 100 runs, and that number will only increase if the middle of the batting order produces better.

Sell high on these 3:

1)  Rich Harden, SP, Chicago Cubs:  It's only a matter of time before he lands on the DL again, which is exactly what Billy Beane was thinking when he dealt Harden yesterday.  He's been lights out so far this year, but with his track record you're better off quitting while you're ahead.

2)  Alex Rios, RF, Toronto Blue Jays:  After cranking 17 home runs before the All-Star break last year, it looks like the Home Run Derby may have negatively affected his swing--he has hit only 11 bombs in the nearly full season since.  His 22 steals thus far are great, but far above his career average.  If he starts to run less in the second half he will lose almost all his value.

3)  Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves:  His romance with .400 seems to be in the past as his batting average is down to .379 with a .258 start to July.  He can't seem to get out of his own way recently with numerous nagging injuries that have all but held him out of the lineup.  He will probably still be a solid player, but his age and injury history make him more of a candidate to fall back to the pack.

*Statistical information derived from baseballreference.com.