Spring! Part I: The Starting Rotation

The first steps toward the '08 Major League Baseball season bring with them a renewed sense of optimism and a number of lingering questions.

Personally I just can't stop smiling about the Mets new ace. So far so good for Mr. Santana as he's said all the right things publicly and seems extra confident about his new team. Thanks to his move to the NL East Johan has the potential to put up a MONSTER season. 30 Games a year against the Nats and Marlins could mean 20 wins and a mid 2 ERA with 250 strikeouts and a  shiny Cy Young for his trouble.  But as a Mets fan I remain skeptical that facing the pitcher three times a game is really a guarantee that Santana will be Koufaxian. But that's just me. I will be more than happy if Santana goes 18-7 with a 3.2 ERA and two or three complete games. That's a lot more than Tom Glavine is gonna give the Braves this season. I do buy the argument that Santana will pitch more innings than any Mets starter has over the past few seasons and by doing so give the team's often beleagured bullpen a much needed rest. That's critical if it's a close race in September.  

As for the rest of the rotation I think all four spots are question marks. How much does Petey really have in the tank? Honestly it isn't too much to expect him to pitch as well as he did when he returned from injury last September. He claims to be healthy and motivated by Santana's arrival. But can he make 30 starts? I doubt it. A realistic projection might be 20 -25 starts and 10-13 wins. At the same time it's not impossible that Pedro could rally for 15 wins and keep pace with Johan. Like I said it's a question mark.

3-4 in the rotation are questions as well. I've got a John Maine man crush and I'm hoping he takes the next step this season: 200 innings, 16-18 wins and the kind of dominating performances we saw during his gem on the second to last day of the season. But he always seems to lose focus in the sixth inning and run out of gas. Let's hope for 14-16 wins and a mid 3's ERA.

Likewise Ollie Perez needs to make 2008 about consistency. While the last thing he needs is the distraction of his contract status with the team (thanks a lot Boras) Perez can't afford to walk six batters every other game like he did last year. Hopefully the Jacket will stay in his ear and there'll be no more mucking around with his arm slot in the middle of games. I honestly can't predict his stats. 16 or 17 wins really wouldn't suprise me but only 10 or 11 wouldn't shock me either. It's stunning to realize that Ollie actually led the team in ERA last year. I don't think he repeats. 

Last but not least the 5th spot in the rotation is propably the biggest question of all. El Duque has the role but for how long? He's already said he won't be moving to the pen and he probably shouldn't. Mike Pelfrey has something to prove after last season awful start. We all remember his nasty six inning start against the Braves but that may be more fluke than reality. Much as I'd like to see Pelfrey win the job in ST I won't complain if he begins the season getting his innings in AAA. El Duque will get hurt eventually and when that happens he needs to be ready. 

Bottom line: We have Johan and the Phillies and Braves don't. He pushes everyone back a slot and turns a questionable rotation into a potentially dominant one. But there are a lot of IF's.