The 2009 Major League Baseball season has been a disaster for the New York Mets, and we all know it, so there's little need to beat a dead horse. Let's move on to 2010. Offensively, the necessities appear to be left field and catcher, but the focus of this post will be starting pitching. "Pitching and defense wins championships" they say, so let's see if the Mets will have what it takes...
No. 1 Starter: LHP-Johan Santana
Johan recently had season-ending surgery, but he's expected to be back and ready to go for spring training in '10. Hopefully the surgery will improve Johan's velocity, as he dipped into the 88-90 range during the second half of this year. He was still relatively effective, but nothing like '08 or his days in a Minnesota Twins' uniform. I don't think Santana will be dominant, but I expect him to be a very solid No. 1 starter in 2010.
No. 2 Starter: Subject to trade or free agency
Biased fans have been pushing Mike Pelfrey in this position for over a year now, but let's face the facts: "Big Pelf" has a 4.83 ERA this season (worthy of only a fourth or fifth starter spot), and only 93 strikeouts and 158 innings. A rate that low means that much of Pelfrey's success is reliant upon BABIP, a statistic that Baseball Prospectus attributes to luck. So in order for Pelfrey to be truly good, he has to be extremely lucky. That's not what I want from my No. 2 starter.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the options in free agency: (in alphabetical order) LHP-Erik Bedard, RHP-Jon Garland (unless his $10 million option is picked up), RHP-Rich Harden, RHP-John Lackey, RHP-Jason Marquis, LHP-Andy Pettitte, LHP-Jarrod Washburn, and LHP-Randy Wolf.
Immediately we can eliminate Lackey, because the Mets will be outbid on the open market. The organization is in bad shape financially because of Bernie Madoff, and the Wilpons aren't in a position to go on a multi-million dollar shopping spree.
Bedard and Harden are too injury-prone, though Harden is probably the most talented pitcher of the bunch. Washburn and Marquis won't be worth the money they command, so we're left with Garland, Wolf, and Pettitte. Odds are that Pettitte either re-signs with the Yankees or retires, so we're really down to Garland and Wolf.
Best case scenario? The Mets end up with both. There are two problems, though: (1) a $10 million club option isn't that bad for a guy like Garland, especially when someone like Oliver Perez is making $12 million a year. The Dodgers may end up keeping Garland. And (2) the front office seems to love John Maine, so they'll probably bring him back at a discounted price.
So let's say we end up with Wolf; well, that's not really the optimal situation for a No. 2 starter.
No. 3 Starter: Mike Pelfrey
Like I said earlier, he should be a No. 4 or 5 starter -- at BEST. He's barely a major league starter in my mind. Still very reliant on his fastball/sinker, and hasn't shown much improvement in his breaking stuff. I don't think he has the brains to jump to the next level.
No. 4 Starter: Oliver Perez
How painful is this? He still has two years left on his ridiculous contract, worth $24 million collectively. There's no way the Mets could keep him out of the rotation given his contract, so they stuck it to themselves here. I don't expect a bounce-back year of any sort from Ollie, because he's injured, wild, and simply not that effective.
This rotation isn't looking too great...
No. 5 Starter: Competition
Say hello to the candidates:
Maine (FA), Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Fernando Nieve (FA), Nelson Figueroa (FA), and Tim Redding (FA).
The obvious choices are Maine or Niese, though I personally don't want anything to do with Maine anymore. Too erratic, also injury-prone like the aforementioned Bedard and Harden. Maine is wild like Ollie and Pelf, and I've had enough of these guys who can't find the strikezone.
Niese probably deserves a shot, but if the organization wanted to wait a little next season, I'd have no problem with Nieve or Figueroa. It's a sad state of affairs when those two are two of a team's BEST starters in a given year, but that's the case with the 2009 Mets.
Prior to his injury, Nieve showed me that he's actually a better, more polished pitcher than Pelfrey, Maine, and Ollie. Nieve has a 92-95 MPH fastball that he locates well, an excellent breaking ball that he can throw on many counts, and a pretty decent change-up to left-handed hitters. Despite little notoriety, Nieve has a better understanding of his craft than The Three Stoogers: Mets Edition.
So that's it?
Johan Santana, Randy Wolf, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jon Niese?
Yikes...looks like we're in for another long season.
Keywords: Bobby Parnell, Braves, Erik Bedard, Fernando Nieve, Johan Santana, John Lackey, John Maine, Jon Garland, Jon Niese, Marlins, Mets, Mike Pelfrey, National League, Nationals, Nelson Figueroa, New York Mets, NL, NL East, Oliver Perez, Pat Misch, Phillies, pitching staff, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, starting pitching, starting rotation, Tim Redding
