The New York Mets: A Quarter Season in Review

All right, so I've jumped the gun a little (the Mets are 21-17, giving them 38 games played, which means they're shy of the 1/4 season mark), but I haven't been too active on this blog and I'd like to get up to speed.

Unofficially tied for first place with the Philadelphia Phillies (percentage points separating the two), it's been a wild, up-and-down ride for the Mets to this point in the season. Not surprisingly, they've made their fair share of idiotic mistakes, both mentally and physically, including a real head-scratcher from Ryan Church last night. 

In Los Angeles, with the game tied 2-2 in the top of the 11th, Church ripped a single to left field with two outs. Up the plate strolled Angel Pagan, a player who has been out of sight for quite some time, after suffering a season-ending injury early in the '08 campaign. Pagan was the subject of much malign just a day earlier, when manager Jerry Manuel pinch hit with him in a critical bases loaded situation, and Angel proceeded to ground into a tailor-made 6-4-3 double play. 

To Pagan's credit, much of the New York radio malign was aimed at Manuel's decision in that spot, and not the fact that Pagan failed to come through. But back to last night:

So Pagan comes up to the plate with three impressive hits under his belt for the evening. The hits came from the right side when he faced left-handed starter Randy Wolf, but Angel was forced to switch around to the left side to face youngster Ramon Troncoso. Pagan looked awful taking his first two hacks against Troncoso, but the inexperienced right-hander hurler made a mistake to Angel with two strikes...

He hung a curveball when he should have stayed with the sinking, two-seam fastball away. 

The result? Pagan smoked a laser into the gap, and Church went from first-to-home to score. 

Or did he?

Dodgers manager Joe Torre pointed to third base after the play, signaling for an appeal play. Dodgers fans rejoiced, and Mets fans puked, when the third base umpire called Church out for missing the bag. As it turns out, it was the correct call. Church told reporters that he thought he touched the base, but New York's third base coach Razor Shines admitted that Church clearly missed the bag. 

What a disaster. Pagan's triple turned into a single in the box score, and the run was taken off the board. The mentally-shaken Mets proceeded to meltdown behind Brian Stokes in the bottom of the 11th, and the Dodgers won 3-2 after two embarrassing defensive errors. 

But, this post isn't about one stomach-turning loss. It's about the entire season to this point. With that in mind, here are my general thoughts at this juncture:

(1) Jerry Manuel didn't cost the Mets the game last night, but he's cost them at least five victories over the course of the previous 37 games. Despite a number of injuries and some boneheaded plays along the way, the Mets have played well enough to hold a comfortable lead in the National League East. Instead, they are in a virtual tie with the Phillies and Manuel's poor situational decision-making has placed his club in this position. 

Manuel doesn't evaluate interior talent well, and he's very unprepared when it comes to opposing pitchers and lineups. Often he says "their guy threw well" or "their guy is a good hitter," meaning he doesn't know the names and tendencies of the key opposing players. I find that to be inexcusable. Omar Minaya's done an admirable job collecting talent for this organization, but he really screwed up when he re-signed Manuel to a two-year deal. With this much talent on a roster -- Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Santana, K-Rod, etc. -- the requirement is a manager who can reap the benefits of that talent by constantly placing his players in the optimal position to succeed. 

Manuel clearly doesn't do so. He must go. But he won't, because of the contract. 

(2) After Johan Santana, the starting pitching is slowly starting to settle into a groove. I've never trusted John Maine or Mike Pelfrey, but as it turns out, there just aren't a lot of quality starters out there in this day and age. That makes both Maine and Pelfrey very serviceable, and the duo is beginning to pitch with a little more confidence. That can be attributed to changing speeds more than they have in the past, something they have to continue to do if they're planning on remaining successful middle-of-the-rotation starters over time. Pelfrey's been projected as a frontliner in the past, but I don't think he has the mind for it. 

Tim Redding looked surprisingly sharp in his first start of the season last night, featuring good command of his 88-92 MPH fastball (with the exception of the first inning), and two good offspeed pitches: a slider and change-up. The change was particularly effective against the Dodgers' slew of left-handed hitters. 

Livan Hernandez has been about what we expected as a fifth starter -- throws strikes, mixes speeds and deliveries, and gets hammered when he doesn't locate well or get the corner calls from homeplate umpires. Regardless, he's more than adequate as a No. 5, as long as he continues to keep the Mets in ballgames. 

(3) I don't think internal options will compensate for the loss of Carlos Delgado. Gary Sheffield has been respectable filling in at the No. 4 position in the batting order, but I think someone like Nick Johnson would be a better option than Jeremy Reed, Fernando Tatis, or Daniel Murphy at first. With Delgado out at least two months, the Mets shouldn't settle for mediocre replacement level options when a quality hitter like Johnson is dangling out on the market. The Washington Nationals have an overload in the outfield, which means they'd like to move Adam Dunn to first base to open up time for guys like Justin Maxwell, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, and maybe even a return to Lastings Milledge. 

I could see other teams showing interest in Johnson, and quickly, so Minaya should get on that as soon as possible. 

(4) If we don't find a long-term replacement at first, here's the lineup I'd like to see: 

1-Reyes-SS

2-Castillo/Cora (when he returns)-2B

3-Beltran-CF

4-Wright-3B

I would put Wright behind Beltran so Beltran could receive better lineup protection. Sheffield isn't terrible but he's definitely not David Wright. With Beltran and Wright separated in the order, they can both be pitched around so the opposition can go after Sheff, Tatis, Murphy or whomever else follows Beltran or Wright in the order. 

5-Sheffield-1B or RF

Sheff basically has to play every day because of a lack of pop in the Mets order without Delgado, but occasionally Manuel could find a way to work the rotation with Tatis, Murphy or Church. Sheff has been an infielder for extended amounts of time in the past, and I think he'd be a better option at first than Church because Church is a very valuable defensive outfielder in right. Church played some first during his stint with the Nationals, but he's better suited as an outfielder on this Mets ballclub. 

6-Murphy-LF

7-Castro/Santos-C

8-Church/Tatis-1B or RF

There's no need for Jeremy Reed. Yes, I rhymed, but not on purpose. Anyway, Reed's a reserve -- plain and simple. The guy was a quadrouple-A player for the Seattle Mariners, and there's no reason to try to make him an everyday guy with Delgado temporarily out of the picture. Manuel has been forcing the issue with Reed, and doing so unjustly. If one of these misfit outfielders needs more time, it's probably Angel Pagan. He looks fresh right now. 

The thing is, the Mets have a ton of lineup flexibility. Reyes, Castillo, Cora, and Pagan can all be leadoff hitters. Castillo, Cora, Murphy, Pagan, and Church can all bat second. Wright, Sheffield, Church, Tatis, and Murphy can all be serviceable in the 5-hole. 

In general, that flexibility is a good thing. However, without Delgado, is there enough firepower?

We'll have to wait and see. Let's go Mets. 

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