(Note: originally posted on February 25.)
Each year, prior to the start of the MLB season, I use a unique mathematical system (one that I will not get into, because it's boring) to project the performance of every player and team. This season, in lieu of their significant offseason additions, I expected the Yankees to come out on top. Surprisingly, my expectations were wrong...
The Boston Red Sox have the best team in baseball.
Seems unusual, I know. Not the Yankees, or the Phillies, or the Rays, or even the Cubs...but the scrappy, resourceful Red Sox.
Here are the specific results:
The Yankees ranked 1st in infield, 19th in outfield, 1st in starting pitching, 5th in relief pitching, and 2nd overall.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, finished 6th in infield, 3rd in outfield, 2nd in starting pitching, and 2nd in relief pitching; thus, 1st overall.
So while the Yankees have the premier infield and starting staff in the game, they do have a glaring weakness in the outfield, with the projected group of RF-Xavier Nady, CF-Johnny Damon, and LF-Nick Swisher. New York's trio should be adequate offensively, but one of the worst defensive outfields in quite some time. Damon has no arm and Nady/Swisher have notably limited range.
(Note: youngster Brett Gardner has defeated Nick Swisher in the battle for a starting outfield spot in the Bronx.)
Anyway, enough sidetracking. Based on the aforementioned mathematical system, here are my full predictions for the upcoming '09 season:
Top ten teams, regardless of divisional situation; in order:
Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Angels, Cubs, Rays, Mets, White Sox, Dodgers, Braves.
Projected standings, by division:
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central: White Sox, Indians, Twins, Tigers, Royals
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners
NL East: Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Brewers, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies, Padres
As you can see, the Rangers, Reds, and Giants may surprise people, while the Tigers and Brewers may disappoint. The Rays, ranked sixth overall, will miss the playoffs because of the ultra-competitive nature of the AL East.
Now for the postseason predictions:
AL Wild Card: Yankees
NL Wild Card: Mets
ALDS: Red Sox over White Sox, Yankees over Angels
NLDS: Phillies over Dodgers, Cubs over Mets
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Phillies over Cubs
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies
Looks like the storied Red Sox/Yankees rivalry will add another chapter come playoff time...
In the coming days and weeks I'll post some of the more specific results of the system. For example, the top five infields, outfields, starting rotations, and/or bullpens. Please keep your eye out for future posts. I openly welcome all comments and opinions.
Keywords: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, MLB predictions, MLB preseason predictions, MLB projections, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, playoff predictions, regular season predictions, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, World Series predictions, World Series projections
