MLB's Top Five Starting Rotations

April 02, 2009

default user icon
John Frascella

MLB's Top Five Starting Rotations

What's different here? Well, Tampa opted to start David Price in AAA. But he'll be back, don't worry...

5-(Tie) Anaheim Angels: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, and Dustin Moseley. Wild card: Kelvim Escobar

and Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, and David Price. 

Again, as I explained in the bullpens post, there were no ties in the original mathematical system. But some things have changed since that initial post, and one of those changes is that Ervin Santana is going to begin the season on the disabled list for the Angels. Undoubtedly, that's a concern for them going forward.

Originally the Angels were ranked fourth in rotation, but the Santana injury could linger throughout the year, and that would certainly weaken Anaheim's unit as a whole. The Rays were ranked sixth, and I think with the Santana injury, Tampa's rotation is just as good -- if not better -- than Anaheim's right now.

They have nice balance with two plus lefties in Kazmir and Price, two polished control guys in ace Shields and crafty Sonnanstine, and an intimidating power arm in Garza.

As for the Angels, Lackey is a workhorse and a rock, and I expect somewhat of a breakout year from Jered Weaver. He really started to figure things out toward the end of the '08 season, including his brief appearance in the playoffs.

(Note: Dustin Moseley doesn't appear to have the upper hand for the Angels' No. 5 spot.)

 

4-Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Jon Garland, Doug Davis, and Max Scherzer. 

It's always a pleasure to have two aces, and that's what Arizona has here in Webb and Haren. However, Haren had a fine year statistically in '08, but I detected a little deterioration in his stuff. Look out for that this season. Regardless, he should still be good for 15 wins in the offensively-challenged National League West.

Garland was an excellent pick up for Arizona. He's definitely a sleeper as far as winning percentage goes. He may see an increase in strikeouts as well. 

Scherzer, like David Price of Tampa Bay, is in a perfect no-pressure situation at the back of his club's rotation. Often times promising young arms are forced into top-of-the-rotation spots, but that's not the case with either of these up-and-coming hurlers. 

Doug Davis is a decent veteran lefty that lulls opposing hitters to sleep with his deliberate style on the hill. 

 

3-San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez. Wild card: Noah Lowry.

Lincecum's right up there with Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, and C.C. Sabathia in the "best pitcher in baseball" discussions. I'd have no problem with someone who said Lincecum was the premier pitcher in the game. 

Cain had a nice bounce back season in '08, after a strange campaign in '07. I think he'll continue to develop this year, and he's certainly one of the top No. 2's out there. Still has plenty of upside, too. 

Then there's the three lefties. Make it four, if we include finesse pitcher Noah Lowry. 

This is an unusual end to a rotation. "The Big Unit" seemed to have something left in his tank last year, so he should be OK at San Francisco's friendly home park. Sanchez has nasty stuff, reminiscent of the Mets' Oliver Perez, but he may also mirror Perez in results. Very up-and-down and generally erratic. Still, he's definitely one of the most talented No. 5 starters. 

I keep thinking Zito will find a way to be decent in this park. I know he's lost a ton of velocity on his fastball, but his curve and change-up are still pretty solid. I think with Johnson around to take some of the pressure off him, Zito will avoid atrocious results in '09. I'd say 11-12 with a 4.40 ERA. Not great, but not terrible for a No. 4. 

 

2-Boston Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny. Wild cards: John Smoltz, Clay Buccholz, and Justin Masterson. 

Theo Epstein's starting pitching depth is pretty incredible. Beckett is arguably the premier playoff pitcher in the bigs, and the other's probably John Smoltz -- yup, they have him too. It'll be awhile before Smoltz works his way into the fold, but Wakefield, Buccholz, and/or Masterson should be more than adequate in the veteran's absence. 

Lester is easily one of the top lefties in the game, and Dice-K's unique grinding style makes him one of the most frustrating starters to contend with. Penny and Smoltz definitely have injury concerns, but it's nice to have explosive young options like Buccholz and Masterson behind them. 

Love the 1-2-3 on this team, and the rotation of 4/5's should be just fine. 

 

 1-New York Yankees: C.C. Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, and Andy Pettitte. Wild card: Phil Hughes.

Rotation spot for rotation spot, the Yankees don't have a pitcher below No. 4. I have Sabathia as the fourth best No. 1, behind Halladay, Santana, and Lincecum. Wang's the second-best No. 2, after Dice-K. Burnett's the top No. 3 starter, Joba's the No. 3 fourth starter, and Pettitte's the No. 3 fifth starter.

Very, very impressive. Of course Burnett, Wang, and Chamberlain will need to stay healthy. If one of them goes down, Phil Hughes should be effective enough as a fill-in. 

 

Posted by John Frascella | Like this post? Share it:
Share on Facebook Share on MySpace Digg This Story Stumble it! Reddit Save to del.icio.us Add to my Technorati Favorites Save to Google Bookmarks Hype it on BallHype.com!

You must be logged in to post a comment.