Eastern Conference Playoff Race Will Get Dicey

We're about 35 games into the NBA season right now -- nearly to the midway point -- and the New Jersey Nets and Milwaukee Bucks are holding on to the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. I doubt that's the way it will end, however, because the list of teams that are on the outside looking in is quite an interesting one: Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers (to name the true contenders).

I think we can assume that the 1-5 seeds are locks, and they are the Cavaliers, Magic, Celtics, Pistons, and Hawks. The Miami Heat should be pretty comfortable in that 6-spot as well, as long as Dwyane Wade remains healthy and continues playing at his customary all-world level. So it's those final two spots that will be up in the air.

The Nets should be able to retain one of the spots, if Devin Harris can stay on the court (he's been injured for a mini-stretch on two separate occasions) and Yi Jianlian can return from a broken finger on his shooting hand, and play effectively. Vince Carter has been pacing himself nicely this season, so I'm not as concerned about his injury history as I've been in past years. Still, I'll knock on wood.

So I'll give the Nets either the seventh or eighth seed, which leaves the Bucks, Sixers, Bulls, Raptors, and Pacers in a five-way battle. With Mike Dunleavy Jr. back, and T.J. Ford set to return soon, I do think the Pacers will show significant improvements in both performance and results in the second half. However, they've dug themselves a nice sized hole in the absence of some of their key players, and a four-game deficit may be tough to overcome when they have six teams ahead of them in the competition for the 8-spot. Though I don't consider the Knicks or Bobcats to be legitimate playoff contenders, both are currently ahead of Indiana.

The fair assumption is that the Pacers won't be able to claw all the way back up to a place in the postseason. I'll eliminate them from contention, though I do believe that they'll surprise some people in the second half.

That leaves the Bucks, Sixers, Bulls, and Raptors. Though the Bucks currently hold that final spot, I have the least confidence in them out of the four teams. Richard Jefferson's numbers have dipped significantly since coming over from New Jersey, and Milwaukee's frontcourt is in shambles. Andrew Bogut is currently injured, and Charlie Villanueva is one of the most inconsistent performers in the league. He's immensely talented on the offensive end, but I don't believe that he can be counted on in a playoff race.

We're down to the Sixers, Bulls, and Raptors. It's an extremely difficult decision, but I'm going with the Raptors. Jose Calderon and Jermaine O'Neal have been hurt, and yet Toronto has held its own in their absence, sitting just 1.5 games behind the Bucks for that eighth and final position. Chris Bosh, Calderon, and O'Neal combine to create an interesting, and potentially very productive trio for this team. Roko Ukic and Joey Graham have shown signs off life off the bench, and Toronto is said to be in the market for the Mavericks' Josh Howard. A deal for him, without giving up Bosh, Calderon or O'Neal, would really put Toronto in the driver's seat. One potential deal I heard about included Anthony Parker and Andrea Bargnani -- nothing about Calderon or O'Neal.

If the Raptors fall short, it'll be a result of the Sixers' second-half performance. Andre Miller is a proven leader at the point guard position, and at the very least, he knows how to help his team into the playoffs. Andre Iguodala is taking responsibility as the leading man for this team, particularly with Elton Brand on the sidelines. The Sixers have picked it up of late, and I'm not entirely sure that Brand's return would represent a positive development for them. Brand just didn't seem to fit in this mix prior to his injury; not at all, really.

Whatever happens, it should be quite an interesting competition. I hope that my Nets can hold on...